Politics as Usual

I think given the Indian polity, the strong central government and weak opposition was too good to ask for. Right now, we have a weak central government and a weak opposition. There are two dangers here.

• The opposition becomes so weak that it becomes rational for them to be bought out rather than wait for actual power
• The Government becomes so weak as to try something really populist but bad (eg quota in private sector)

These thoughts are courtesy this article by Swapan Dasgupts

Instant Analysis

Following comes to mind:

1. I think congress gained cos of NREGA and farmers loan waiver. Its not good economics but its atleast good politics

2. There seems to be a welcome trend of consolidation of National Parties in UP, WB etc

3. At some level, there seems to be a failure of leadership opn Advani's part to motivate his state leaders. 

4. I think a very good model for BJP would be to go for Bihar Model. Rebrand themshelves as a centre right economic party but give strong signals that social amity will be maintained and social security for the extremely backward.

The Republic Day Debate

I have been partial to the idea of India being a presidential system of democracy since childhood. The notion that generally a presidential system of government will be good for India was more a reflection of the fact that the parliamentary system of government did not yield the proper results. Mark you, those were the days of Gujaral and Devegowda so I was not that far off the mark. However, the more I read about the presidential form of government, the less convinced I am about the merits of the system. For example, for one of the most developed economies, US has one of the most underdeveloped governance mechanism. I think that is because of the transition issues arising primarily out of presidential system of executive appointments for apolitical jobs. West Europe on reasonable parameters of governance seems ahead.  I have personally seen the side effects of this kind of practice in Sri Lanka where the governance system is quite weak again political appointees playing a helping hand in the same. One other factoid that we must keep in mind is this. You realize that, while the presidential system may bring additional stability, does India has a civil society which could keep the executive in check. India doesn’t seem to have the wherewithal to handle petty goons of MNS or Ram Sena, let alone withstand the assault the presidential system. So all in all, I say lets stick to the Parliamentary system as of now.

News for tomorrow

I believe this is going to create a bit of news tomorrow morning. Here is US presidential candidate (practically president-in-waiting; see 538) talking about Kashmir

Working with Pakistan and India to try to resolve, and Kashmir, crisis in a serious way. Those are all critical tasks for the next administration. Kashmir in particular is an interesting situation where that is obviously a potential tar pit diplomatically. But, for us to devote serious diplomatic resources to get a special envoy in there, to figure out a plausible approach, and essentially make the argument to the Indians, you guys are on the brink of being an economic superpower, why do you want to keep on messing with this? To make the argument to the Pakistanis, look at India and what they are doing, why do you want to keep n being bogged down with this particularly at a time where the biggest threat now is coming from the Afghan boarder? 

Now, I am pretty sure, this is a shift from the current US policy. India has in the past strongly objected to the presence of a special envoy for Kashmir. My take here is that Obama is being lazy. He understands that the issue is much more complex, but he thinks he can strengthen his pragmatic image here by trying to showcase some opportunity of movement in Kashmir. I am sure, Obama himself will realize is that his current proposal sounds like giving candy to the nuisance maker so that he may keep quiet. I am sure he will realize that this strategy seldom works. 

The Way Out

It is a bit obvious that the BJP and its senior leadership are in a bit of a bind in opposing the nuclear deal given the fact that the deal is popular in the upper middle class of citizenry (and basically thats the only class which will make any political decision based on the deal). And currently, the argument of the BJP - is unequal partnership. I am suggesting that the BJP follows a more n position on this. Here is what i think BJP should argue.

• Concede that the deal is overall good in 'letter and spirit', but could have been better. as in specifically the deal is good in 'spirit' but bad in 'letter'. And while with the next govts in both countries, the 'spirit' will be gone, India will be stuck with the 'letter' and thus with a bad deal
• The congress should have made a concerted effort to take the mainstream parties (NDA) on board for a foregn policy deal (remind people that foreign policy deals should be consenus based)
• The failure of congress to coordinate with NDA also led to a bad deal as in the UPA failed to put in opposition from NDA as a hindrance to score a better deal

The Overreach

While it has become the established CW among the cognoscenti that this time Prakash karat overplayed his hand and thus lost his considerable influence on the polity. While i mostly agree (Mostly- cause, this close to election, and Manmohan reneging on his word, he hardly had any option). The point i want to make is, the considerable influence of karat was mostly due to the political incompetence of Mr Manmohan Singh and the congress party. In a coalition, if you are small..but vital..you get cabinet berths..but here what congress did was instead of cabinet posts, gave CPM control over the economic agenda. That was never wise as fringe ideology based party can only harm you if you allow them to set up the agenda.

So, overall it was the incompetence rather than anything else that allowed CPM to have so much influence, cause as you can see in the murky world of poltics, for political compulsions, a high brow person like Prakash karat has to anoint Mayawati as a natural PM. (That should lay to rest btw, any concept of intellectual honesty among CPM leaders....just as we have for other parties)

The Obama Model

It seems from the recent statements of Rahul Gandhi that the congress strategists are trying to use a customised Obama model of attracting votes on demographics (as in youth in this case) rather than identity (Caste or religion) or ideology (Communism etc). Add for all the failures of Rahul Gandhi as a politician, i wish that this strategy of Rahul Gandhi succeeds. I dont think the Indian polity is mature enough to arrive at the long term winning formula (ie a centrist ideology)..but the politicians are sure smart enough to copy a winning formula. So if Rahul Gandhi is successful, even though entrenched identity leaders like Mayawati or Mulayam may not change their strategy, an upstart can probably adopt the new strategy to make gains.

So best of luck Mr Gandhi.

P.S - Maybe calling this strategy ' The Obama Model' is giving Mr Obama too much credit. But i think, the success of Obama has something to do with this new strategy hence the title heading

The utlity of Madam President

I was not really happy with the selection of Pratibha Patil as the presidential candidate. The usual reasons, career politician, nothing much achieved with a hint of nepotism..not really the stuff legends are made of, especially given Kalam's CV.

But, i had the opportunity to witness the arrival of the President in Bhopal and i must say that despite the municpal efforts to clean the city, the visit itself was quite underwhelming. Thus, you realise, getting a common person to become the president is probably just what is needed to deglamourise the office which by all accounts is mostly explained as rubber stamping

HT Coloumns

I have always thought of Pankaj Vohra as a congress stooge, so i dont think he intended it so, but his coloumn in HT starts as "The Cabinet reshuffle shows that the PM was influenced by the Congress high command". Guess the only way you can be in the 'High command' in congress is by being in the Gandhi family.

Another funny column is that of Mr Sanghvi berating middle class for hypocrisy

A case against senile ministers

With MM joshi you thought maybe he has some issues...But then came natwar singh..Why did he act in such an imprudent manner..and now Arjun Singh..You can find a number of references where and why they went wrong...my guess is that they are so out of touch and so old ..A heady combo...that they can take a gamble for creating history(not applies for Natwar singh-tho he did take a gamble) without much chance of loosing anything... Afterall they are old..what will you do..make them retire??
Plus since they are old...how much work they can do...if you want to take advantage of their experience...make them head a think tank or two...
What such ineffective ministers also do is to hand excessive freedom to bureaucrats who for all their intelligence will never entertain a solution which diminishes govt.'s role..this dimnishes the solution to the problem itself....
so i say bar anyone over 70 from an executive post